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Russia-Ukraine war: how to address inflation and growth impacts?

Day 1 Morning

Wednesday 07 September

Room :



Rolf Strauch
Chief Economist and Member of the Management Board - European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
Public Authorities
Declan Costello
Deputy Director-General, Coordination of Economic Policies of Member States - DG for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Alfred Kammer
Director, European Department - International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Ludek Niedermayer
Vice-Chair & MEP - European Parliament - ECON Committee
Álvaro Pereira
Director Country Studies - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Industry Representatives
Dino Kos
Special Advisor to the Chief Executive Officer - CLS Bnak International
Michael West
President, Moody's Investors Service - Moody's Corporation

Objectives of the session

Beyond the immediate humanitarian impact, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is severely setting back the global recovery, slowing growth and increasing inflation even further. This shock exacerbates stagflationary risks.

European economies are hit the hardest, compared to other global regions, particularly those that have a common border with either Russia or Ukraine. This is due to relatively strong trade and energy dependencies with Russia prior to the conflict, which has led to much larger gas price rises in Europe than in other parts of the world.

This session will look at the persistence of the inflationary and growth shock and focus on the monetary, fiscal and structural policies that policymakers need to implement to maintain stability and growth in Europe.

Points of discussion

  1. What are the economic effects of the 2022 sanctions on Russia? How has the war and sanctions hit the EU economies? What steps should the ECB take to address the overshooting of inflation and anchor it at its objective? How persistent is the inflationary pressure? Does the return to the ECB’s objective require positive real interest rates?
  2. What are the right fiscal and economic policy priorities to stabilize the economies and achieve sustainable growth in the European Union in the context of the over-indebtedness of some Member States, lower growth, and the loss of real income of households: stimulating demand or supply side economic reforms? Is NGEU a game changer to relaunch growth within the EU? How to improve the overall composition and quality of public finances across EU Member States?