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Global trade and economic tensions: impacts on the EU economy and financial system

Day 1 Morning

Wednesday 17 September

Room :

ROOM 1

Speakers

Chair
Mario Nava
Director General - DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, European Commission
Public Authorities
Alfred Kammer
Director, European Department - International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Barnabas Dezseri
Head of Insurance Unit - Ministry for National Economy, Hungary
Carmine Di Noia
Director of Financial and Enterprise Affairs - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Rolf Strauch
Chief Economist and Member of the Management Board - European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
Industry Representatives
Las Olsen
Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research - Danske Bank
Michael West
President - Moody's Ratings

Objectives

This session will analyse the new EU–US trade agreement concluded in July 2025 and use it as a lens to assess Europe’s position in the global economy. The discussion will examine both the economic and political consequences of the agreement, considering its asymmetric terms (15% US tariffs on EU exports, duty-free access for US exports, EU commitments to invest in the US and purchase US shale gas) and the likely differentiated impacts across Member States, depending on their industrial structures, trade exposure, and energy dependency.Beyond the immediate economic implications, the debate will address the political repercussions within the EU: how such an outcome reflects institutional and strategic weaknesses in trade negotiations, fuels public discontent, and deepens divisions between Member States.From this starting point, the session will broaden its focus to explore how the EU and its Member States can respond to the combined challenges of global trade fragmentation, rising geopolitical tensions, asymmetric economic shocks, and persistent policy divergences. Participants will be invited to identify concrete national and European priorities to strengthen resilience, enhance competitiveness, and foster deeper financial and industrial integration — ensuring that the EU can act as a unified and influential global economic and political actor.

Points of discussion

  • What does the new EU–US trade agreement reveal about Europe’s position in the global economy, and what are its economic and political impacts across Member States?
  • How can the EU and its Member States strengthen resilience, competitiveness and financial stability in a fragmented world?